Archives for March 2020

Comparing the Scandinavian Countries

Sweden is going it alone in attacking the coronavirus situation, keeping most of life going, encouraging social distancing, isolating the sick and seniors homes. They now have restricted public gatherings to no more than 50. They expect their economy will not emerge unscathed, but they are not shutting everything down either.

I’ve shared several articles on Facebook on this topic and a friend shared another one just tonight. I thought I’d do a little comparison on the worldometer charts, and see where some relatively close countries are faring, adding in the UK as a more severely hit comparison.

Here is the article that got me started on this tonight:

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

Here are a few earlier articles I shared:

Explaining the science behind Sweden’s relaxed coronavirus approach

As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on

Ok, now for the comparison charts (from worldometer, linked above):

sweden

finland

Norway

britain

All three of the comparison nations are using more stringent shutdowns. The key number to compare, I think is Cases/1M pop and Deaths/1M pop.

So far, Sweden seems not much worse off than any of these countries.

Compared to the whole world (the numbers in the bottom row in each picture), all of these countries seem high, but that is probably misleading. I am guessing that more urban nations with a more mobile population will have higher rates than nations like those in Africa, perhaps.

Anyway, it is interesting to watch. My opinion is that the total shutdown is unnecessary and will hurt us way more than the Swedish approach would do in the long run. Only time will tell, but I think we are not well served by our government and especially the media at this time.

The real deal in Italy

I am following a blog on the Wuhan virus situation. Here is the author’s bio:

Chris Centeno, MD is a specialist in regenerative medicine and the new field of Interventional Orthopedics. Centeno pioneered orthopedic stem cell procedures in 2005 and is responsible for a large amount of the published research on stem cell use for orthopedic applications.

Today, I’m sharing his post from yesterday, entitled, "What’s Really Going On in Italy?"

This one sparked some interest for me because as soon as you start talking to someone about the virus, the more concerned will say something like, "Yeah, well look at Italy." So let’s look at Italy. This piece has a video from JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) which is an interview by Howard Bauchner, MD, of JAMA with Maurizio Cecconi, MD, of Italy, a man on the front in the battle againat the Wuhan virus in Italy. He describes the Italy situation clearly, without the spin the news media inevitably adds to their reports. The value of this report is you are getting an expert assessment straight from an expert. News reporters are no more experts at this than you or I, though they talk as if they are.

Having said that, I’d like to point out that I am not one to simply rely on "experts." The notion that only experts may speak on the topic is irrational. We all have the ability to absorb information and make judgements about the information we receive. We should take care ourselves not to "rush to judgement" one way or another. We hear an alarming report and we can respond too soon, driven by our natural fear, without careful analysis or considering alternate points of view. Even in the community of experts, there are widely varying points of view, so we should be careful about any conclusions we come to. Conclusions driven by fear can hardly be trusted or considered authoritative.

Back to the question of Italy, what really is going on in Italy? Near the end of his piece, Chris Centrino says:

If covering this crisis as a blogger has taught me one thing, it’s cemented my belief that the primary purpose of our media is to sell eyeballs for advertisers. Yes, they can serve a critical role in helping to expose wrongs, but on balance, it’s their job to sensationalize what’s happening. This crisis and threat is VERY real and this virus will overwhelm our health system if we don’t shut it all down to flatten the curve and then smartly manage the situation. However, listening to this leading Italian ICU physician speak does one thing clearly, it shows how the media has taken some truths about Italy and blown them up into something that is not recognizable.

The upshot? I was floored by this interview. PLEASE TAKE 10 MINUTES AND WATCH IT NOW FOR YOURSELF. Also, we need to maintain our current shutdown and begin to call out states that are not getting with the program. Why? Like Italy, we need to have our own cases peak and come down the other side. We also need to prepare our ICUs and restructure how we care for the sick while we continue to ramp up testing. However, we also need to recognize that it’s the media’s job to sell us stuff and we all need to take everything reported with a BIG grain of salt.

What should we do? Well, be careful in public contacts. People are afraid, and maybe there is good reason to be afraid. Yet one would think that good health habits and taking care in our public contacts should be enough from each one of us. Don’t get bent out of shape at others who don’t do things exactly the way you would do. Don’t report your fellow-citizens to the police! (Good grief, what are we, a police state?) Just take precautions and do what you need to do. And stay home more. There’s nothing to do out there anyway!